Luke Fox: The Dodgers’ Latest Under-The-Radar Prospect

No matter where they look, the Dodgers consistently find talent anywhere. Luke Fox was drafted out of Duke University in the 17th round of the 2023 MLB Draft and is ready to take the minors by storm. He possesses a repertoire that includes a four-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, slider, and a slurve. This has helped him strike out 32 batters in 26.2 innings this year. While his performance may surprise most people, for others, this is no surprise for the Wisconsin native.

Background

Fox was born on Jan. 4, 2002, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and has played baseball since age three. Whether he was hitting or pitching, it did not matter as all he wanted was to play. However, baseball was not the only sport he played as track, basketball and football also occupied his time. He led his football team to back-to-back state championships, becoming the first Wisconsin-based high school quarterback to accomplish this since 1993-94. He capped off his high school career by leading his team to a 35-0 victory in the state championship against Kiel High School.

Despite his accomplishments, Fox’s varsity baseball coach, Tim Gotzler, always saw his potential on the diamond. Following his freshman season, Gotzler sat him and his dad down to discuss his baseball future. He believed Fox needed to start thinking about college and possibly pursuing baseball professionally. The left-hander described the meeting as “It was really eye-opening for me because I thought of myself as an athlete. I never thought about the future.”

College Days

While it is not the typical baseball powerhouse, Duke University is where Fox committed to out of high school. A priority for him when deciding on a college was academics, which made Duke appealing. Evolutionary anthropology was his major of choice, his reason was, “I found it was a really cool mix of studying the human body specifically, as well as some more basic biology classes that I could kind of combine the two.” Another reason why he picked anthropology was, he felt that it would help him with pitching and understanding his body. In his two seasons at Duke, he posted a 4.74 ERA across 108.1 innings pitched. While the numbers may not seem the best, the talent and raw stuff were there, evidenced by the 142 strikeouts, good enough for an 11.8 K/9.

In the fall of 2022, Fox underwent Tommy John surgery after suffering a forearm strain the previous spring. Being sidelined was hard for him at first, although he thinks the break allowed him to develop in other areas. While in the dugout, Fox focused on “Being able to lock in on being a good teammate really helped me.” During his time supporting his team, he was able to see the game from a different angle. It helped him rethink his approach to the game.

Getting Drafted

As draft day approached, Fox did not expect to get drafted, so much to the point he anticipated returning to Duke. That all changed in the 17th round of the 2023 MLB Draft when the Los Angeles Dodgers selected him with the 520th overall pick. Eight days later he officially signed with the organization, despite being able to return to Duke for one more year. Initially, he was torn, on whether to sign or return to college. However, after a meeting with Rob Hill and Will Rhymes, he knew his time at Duke was over. In the meeting, the pair laid out what the Dodgers organization had to offer and why he should sign with them. Fox officially signed with the organization eight days after he was drafted.

The Underlying Metrics of a Triumphant Return

2024 marked the return of Fox. For many, his performance has been a pleasant surprise, considering he had not pitched in two years. Though if you asked him he would tell you this is no surprise. Fox believed he made huge strides in his development for his junior year during his sophomore season, yet he was unable to showcase it, due to the injury. What stands out about him is his work ethic, even with his success this year, he desires more. His command around the edges is “messy” according to him. But how messy can a pitcher be with a miniscule 1.35 ERA?

While he does walk more batters than the average pitcher with a 4.05 BB/9, this should not worry anyone. The reason is his efficiency, on average Fox throws 3.785 pitches per plate appearance and 15.19 pitches per innings pitched. His 15.19 P/IP would rank in the top 15 across qualified starters and his P/PA would rank him ahead of All-Star Paul Skenes (4.157 P/PA).

Harnessing The Pitches

The fact of the matter is more likely than not, Fox’s concern about his command on the edge can be attributed to missed calls by the umpires. He only throws strikes at a 62% rate, which would land him in the bottom ten in the league. However, those same pitches he throws have allowed him to limit batters to a .191 AVG against him. If you dive deep into the pitch-tracking data, the theory becomes less hypothetical and more true.

On July 5, two of the three walks he gave up, appear to have been missed calls by home plate umpire Caden Gustafson. Gustafson missed multiple calls within those at-bats as well. While the pitch-tracking data in the minors is not perfect, Fox can expect to get more of those calls as he moves up in the system.

Another positive sign is his ability to limit the long ball, allowing just one this season. The lone homer came in his Quakes debut on June 23 against the 66ers. As if scoring on him was not hard enough, when runners get into scoring position, batters are just 4-22 against him.

Final Thoughts

With the offseason fast approaching Fox seeks to stay aggressive as the season winds down. According to Fox, he wants to “Make sure that I’m not getting complacent with my approach. I want to make sure I stay aggressive.” As for an MLB comparison, Framber Valdez seems fitting. Both have similar pitch arsenals and underlying metrics. While it is unknown whether some of the control issues can be attributed solely to the umpires, Fox has shown glimpses of his capabilities. Given time and combined with his work ethic it will not be long before Fox is ranked highly amongst not only Dodgers’ prospects but among the very best pitching prospects.