Ryan Falla
It’s no secret the Dodgers Low-A squad is chock full of uber-talent all across the roster. From star pitchers in the making to future lineup stalwarts, there’s a bit of everything to enjoy as a baseball fan. One of the bigger standouts on an already stacked roster is right-handed pitcher Gabe Emmett, drafted in the 19th round of the 2021 draft out of Folsom Lake College. 2023 has seen Emmett hit a groove that puts him at the top of his class not just within the Dodgers organization, but across the entire Low-A Cal League. At the age of 22, it appears Emmett has begun to grasp his major-league potential and elevate his ability to the next level.
Gabe Emmett sets himself apart from the masses of pitching prospects due to his ability to generate weak contact on a consistent basis. Emmett’s 57% ground ball (GB) rate is currently third-best in the league and first-best among the Quakes. His ability to leave runners on base rates among the top 10 in the league with his 73.4% left-on-base (LOB) rate. Though Emmett may not be a high-volume strikeout guy (7.0 K/9 in 2023) his ability to induce weak contact at high rates has embedded his value as a legitimate prospect for the Dodgers. Though the flashy strikeout rate may not immediately be present for Emmett the fact that he displays a strong consistency generating weak contact proves the quality of stuff. Avoiding bats is one thing, but being able to take the power out of a swing when a hitter does make contact is priceless.
“The idea is just to get them out as fast as possible. If I don’t get to two strikes that’s fine, I’m throwing less pitches and I can go farther into the game. I can get the strikeout but mainly I’m pitching to contact, trying to get ground balls. Get a one-pitch out every time.”
Emmett holds a 2.55 ERA on the year through 42.1 IP with just six XBHs allowed across 150 opposing ABs. His current HR/9 rate of 0.21 places him in the top 10 among pitchers across the Low A California League while also ranking top 10 in opposing batting average (.205). His BABIP of .256 is 4th best in the league, all of this while appearing in 16 total games which is best for 2nd most across the Cal League. A great deal of this success comes thanks to a biting sinker/slider combo that opens up both sides of the plate and allows Emmett to pitch to both righties and lefties with equitable success. Though he does have a number of walks on his record this is nothing but a simple byproduct of his developing relationship with the inside of the plate. Continued development should see Emmett cut down his walks significantly, which in turn should boost his strikeout ability given a furthered sense of control.
“I throw a sinker and a slider, I also throw a split change but that’s more in the back pocket. That’s more of a strikeout pitch to lefties, throw that in the dirt for a swing. I’m not going to throw it much 0-0. I go inside to righties with that sinker and same with the slider to lefties. I’m trying to break their bat, I like to keep hitters uncomfortable and throw inside.
Gabe Emmett has found himself among an elite rotation of arms and readily responded by molding himself into a similar form. His ability to sap power out of opposing bats brings strong value in a world quickly revolving around EV and launch angle. His month of June has been his best of the year and he only looks to continue getting better from here. He maintains a very “Tyler Anderson“-esque approach on the mound, but with time he may begin to outshine his own comps. Being just a single tweak or two away from an improved strikeout ability sets Emmett on the path to finding something truly special within himself. It’s a long way to the big leagues from Low A, yet if Emmett can maintain the pace he’s set for himself this year he’ll find that path getting much shorter as he carves his way to the top.
